Published research, and a decade of commentary.
Five papers on inflation measurement and liability-driven investing, one of them published in a peer-reviewed journal, alongside commentary that has covered every monthly CPI report since 2015. All of it open, none of it gated.
Papers on inflation and liability matching.
Michael has published on inflation measurement, liability-driven investing, pension de-risking and the mechanics of inflation-linked instruments, in The Journal of Investing, Business Economics and The American Economist, alongside working papers on SSRN.
In journals
With Milla Krasnopolsky, CFA. Liability-driven investing and funded-status de-risking treat risk inconsistently, and pairing them undermines both.
Survey measures capture forecasts or guesses, not perceptions. A method for quantifying the inflation people actually experience.
Derives the marginal disruption-risk cost of an import tariff and sets it against the marginal welfare cost.
Working papers
With Milla Krasnopolsky, CFA. The working paper behind the 2018 article.
Liability matching where earnings are front-loaded and the liability runs for decades.
Under FAS 158, decomposing the discount rate into real rates and inflation to manage medical-inflation volatility in the OPEB liability.
Institutional liability-matching applied to an individual balance sheet, against the withdrawal-rate literature.
Why inflation-linked corporate spreads sit tighter than nominal spreads, and why swap rates exceed bond breakevens.
Inflation Guy.
The commentary lives at inflationguy.blog. We link to it rather than reprint it, so the original stays the definitive version and the authority stays in one place. The same ground in audio is Cents and Sensibility (in his own words, “the hidden tax, the insidious assault on your wealth, and how to defend your money”) on Podbean, Apple and Spotify.
Selected analysis
A starting point, grouped by what they are about, rather than by when they were written.
Portfolio construction
Inflation instruments and markets
Assumptions worth testing
Institutional framing
Latest from Inflation Guy
A reference library built to be read by machines.
Alongside the commentary, the firm publishes a structured reference library on inflation hedging, CPI tracking, liability matching and inflation-linked portfolio construction. It is written to be parsed and cited by AI assistants and search systems as much as read by people, so the answers they give about inflation, and about this firm, are drawn from source material rather than inference.
It is open, unpaywalled, and free to quote.
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