Velocity Regime Change, or Why Econometrics Is Hard

Michael Ashton - 09/10/12

Frightening Possibilities

Michael Ashton - 09/04/12

Quarterly Inflation Outlook (Q3, 2012)

Michael Ashton - 08/23/12

How Disinflation Could (But Probably Won't) Happen

Michael Ashton - 08/13/12

Do We Want To Bet With Ben?

Michael Ashton - 06/15/12

Quarterly Inflation Outlook (Q2, 2012)

Michael Ashton - 05/23/12

 

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Velocity Regime Change, or Why Econometrics Is Hard

by Michael Ashton on September 10, 2012

Finding relationships between and among economic and financial data series is difficult - and it becomes extremely difficult when a regime shift completely alters the relationships in mid-stream. This example is one of the more extreme regime shifts we've ever seen, and directly impacts the interpretation of market valuations. Read more »

Frightening Possibilities

by Michael Ashton on September 4, 2012

What would happen to inflation if the money multiplier, or velocity, or both, begin to return to their historical ranges? Read more »

Quarterly Inflation Outlook (Q3, 2012)

by Michael Ashton on August 23, 2012

This quarterly report is intended to give our clients and select prospects an overview of the economic and financial conditions as they relate to the possibility for an acceleration or deceleration of inflation. This is the report for Q3 2012, published August 21, 2012. Read more »

How Disinflation Could (But Probably Won't) Happen

by Michael Ashton on August 13, 2012

We haven't changed our view, and expect core inflation to continue to rise with some long-tail possibilities. But here is how disinflation could, in principle, happen. As always, we must remain cognizant not just of our expectations, but of the risks to our expectations, if we are to be successful investors. Read more »

Do We Want To Bet With Ben?

by Michael Ashton on June 15, 2012

Money growth matters to inflation, of course, and always has. But there is a surprising lack of discussion of this important topic today, at least in policymaker circles. Here we show some evidence for why we should care, and one reason why we expect core inflation to continue to rise. Read more »

Quarterly Inflation Outlook (Q2, 2012)

by Michael Ashton on May 23, 2012

This quarterly report is intended to give our clients and select prospects an overview of the economic and financial conditions as they relate to the possibility for an acceleration or deceleration of inflation. This is the report for Q2 2012, published May 21, 2012. Read more »