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by Michael Ashton on May 4, 2012
Small surprises are good news, unless the underlying process tends to undergo an evolutionary, not revolutionary, shift to a new path. In that case, small surprises make it much harder to detect paradigm shifts. Unfortunately, core inflation is the sort of variable that routinely sees small rather than large misses. Read more »
by Michael Ashton on April 27, 2012
By defending the owners of capital, the Fed is actually helping to hold down real wages since there is no reason to substitute away from capital to labor. But this doesn't mean nominal wages won't rise. Read more »
by Michael Ashton on March 19, 2012
How does the recent recovery in Commercial Bank Credit related to money velocity, and what does it say about inflation? Read more »
by Michael Ashton on February 22, 2012
This quarterly report is intended to give our clients and select prospects an overview of the economic and financial conditions as they relate to the possibility for an acceleration or deceleration of inflation. This is the report for Q1 2012, published February 21, 2012. Read more »
by Michael Ashton on February 3, 2012. Updated on January 26, 2012.
The Fed's statement yesterday is unmistakably dovish - and the Chairman's statement goes as far to the dovish side as anything we have probably ever heard from a Chairman of the Federal Reserve before. Read more »
by Michael Ashton on February 3, 2012. Updated on January 24, 2012.
There seems an awful lot of talk about QE3 and the risks of deflation considering that core inflation is rising in every developed economy, and has been for more than a year. Read more »