Do We Want To Bet With Ben?

Michael Ashton - 06/15/12

Quarterly Inflation Outlook (Q2, 2012)

Michael Ashton - 05/23/12

The Problem With Small Surprises

Michael Ashton - 05/04/12

Keynes, Marx, and Bernanke

Michael Ashton - 04/27/12

Bank Credit Expansion, Velocity, and Inflation

Michael Ashton - 03/19/12

Quarterly Inflation Outlook (Q1, 2012)

Michael Ashton - 02/22/12

 

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Do We Want To Bet With Ben?

by Michael Ashton on June 15, 2012

Money growth matters to inflation, of course, and always has. But there is a surprising lack of discussion of this important topic today, at least in policymaker circles. Here we show some evidence for why we should care, and one reason why we expect core inflation to continue to rise. Read more »

Quarterly Inflation Outlook (Q2, 2012)

by Michael Ashton on May 23, 2012

This quarterly report is intended to give our clients and select prospects an overview of the economic and financial conditions as they relate to the possibility for an acceleration or deceleration of inflation. This is the report for Q2 2012, published May 21, 2012. Read more »

The Problem With Small Surprises

by Michael Ashton on May 4, 2012

Small surprises are good news, unless the underlying process tends to undergo an evolutionary, not revolutionary, shift to a new path. In that case, small surprises make it much harder to detect paradigm shifts. Unfortunately, core inflation is the sort of variable that routinely sees small rather than large misses. Read more »

Keynes, Marx, and Bernanke

by Michael Ashton on April 27, 2012

By defending the owners of capital, the Fed is actually helping to hold down real wages since there is no reason to substitute away from capital to labor. But this doesn't mean nominal wages won't rise. Read more »

Bank Credit Expansion, Velocity, and Inflation

by Michael Ashton on March 19, 2012

How does the recent recovery in Commercial Bank Credit related to money velocity, and what does it say about inflation? Read more »

Quarterly Inflation Outlook (Q1, 2012)

by Michael Ashton on February 22, 2012

This quarterly report is intended to give our clients and select prospects an overview of the economic and financial conditions as they relate to the possibility for an acceleration or deceleration of inflation. This is the report for Q1 2012, published February 21, 2012. Read more »