Enduring Insights
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Why Do We Worry About Inflation Right Now?
Michael Ashton – July 15, 2009
The interesting thing is that the Fed must either have a tremendous amount of credibility, or none at all, judging from the low level of inflation breakevens. Either the market believes that the FOMC will resist all of the pressure to be soft on inflation and will hike rates and pull back liquidity with the Unemployment Rate at 10% - which would represent truly remarkable credibility – or they don't think the Fed is capable of causing inflation, which would be a serious indictment since we have this technology called a printing press... Read more »
Freeconomics?
Enduring Investments – July 14, 2009
In this multi-part blog, I have decided to explore the economics of "free" goods (meaning 100% subsidized) in the form of televisions and apply the implications to a nationalized health care system in an attempt to determine what kind of inflationary impact such a system may have.
Today is part 1 of the blog. Enjoy! Read more »
Blogentary: Pay For Performance
Michael Ashton – July 10, 2009
There are real reasons to be concerned that while the worst quarters of the contraction are probably over, the economy is still not responding to the tender ministrations of the Fed and the Congress. The growth of commercial bank credit, adjusted for the change in the composition of the commercial bank sector (to wit, the adding of two big ones last year), is as slow as it has been since at least 1974. Read more »
Inflation and the Irrelevancy of Capacity Constraint - the Case of Air Fares
Michael Ashton – June 25, 2009
A very popular conceit in the market today is that inflation is a dead issue since (obviously) economic activity is slack and the degree of slack is likely to remain high for some time. The case of Air Fares provides an excellent illustration of why inflation doesn't work this way. Read more »
Reshaping the Fed to "Round the Rough Edges"
Michael Ashton – May 18, 2009
Jon Hilsenrath's column A Reshaped Fed Is Likely to Gain Some Powers, Lose Others in the Wall Street Journal today reminds us that the crisis ain't over until the hearings are done... Read more »
A Long-Term Crisis, or a Crisis of Long-Term Thinking?
Michael Ashton – March 10, 2009
National Geographic's March 2009 issue has a decent article on the Canadian Oil Sands... Read more »