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by Michael Ashton on January 5, 2010
A recent opinion paper out of the St. Louis Fed argues that the Fed ought to "hierarchically" stabilize inflation first and then turn to growth. But the author's argument is incompletely formed, and in fact is probably a better argument for an ad hoc approach, or alternately a laissez faire approach! Read more »
by Michael Ashton on December 16, 2009
The unwind of the housing bubble is masking the underlying trend of percolating inflation. Read more »
by Michael Ashton on December 3, 2009
Thirty years ago, Volcker's "Saturday Night Special" announcement kicked off a monetarist experiment that permitted the Fed's direct assault on inflation. Maybe it is time to try it again. Read more »
by Michael Ashton on November 25, 2009
The Fed suspects that if rates are kept very low for a long time, it is possible that such policy could lead to excessive risk-taking in financial markets. Really. Read more »
by Michael Ashton on November 18, 2009
A small upside surprise in CPI could have been a bigger one without the housing-bubble unwind; this, combined with plummeting Housing Starts, is a bad set of data for the Fed. Read more »
by Michael Ashton on November 13, 2009
We offer a forecast for year-ahead core inflation, and explain the risks to that forecast. Read more »