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by Michael Ashton on March 24, 2010
A bottom-up approach to long-run expected equity returns suggests that long-term TIPS are priced to return a similar rate with less volatility, even if stocks are only fair value rather than expensive. Read more »
by Michael Ashton on March 9, 2010
Although many people believe that when the BLS hedonically adjusts price indices to reflect changes in quality it systematically dampens recorded inflation, there is at least one significant example of hedonic adjustment being used to increase recorded inflation for a large part of the index. Read more »
by Michael Ashton on February 17, 2010
The Government is not beaming secret messages into our brains, and it isn't manipulating CPI to hold down transfer payments, either. Here are the main reasons people perceive more inflation than there actually is. Read more »
by Michael Ashton on January 29, 2010
With the latest data plugged in, our models are calling for core inflation to bottom in late Q3 and accelerate in Q4. Read more »
by Michael Ashton on January 28, 2010
We rarely post anything with no additional comment, but this link to a terrific video comparing Keynes' theories to Hayek's is terrific. Read more »
by Michael Ashton on January 5, 2010
A recent opinion paper out of the St. Louis Fed argues that the Fed ought to "hierarchically" stabilize inflation first and then turn to growth. But the author's argument is incompletely formed, and in fact is probably a better argument for an ad hoc approach, or alternately a laissez faire approach! Read more »