Enduring Insights
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Central Bank Dilemma: Choosing The Stable Parameter
Michael Ashton – January 5, 2010
A recent opinion paper out of the St. Louis Fed argues that the Fed ought to "hierarchically" stabilize inflation first and then turn to growth. But the author's argument is incompletely formed, and in fact is probably a better argument for an ad hoc approach, or alternately a laissez faire approach! Read more »
Shelter Flatters CPI Print
Michael Ashton – December 16, 2009
The unwind of the housing bubble is masking the underlying trend of percolating inflation. Read more »
Another Saturday Night
Michael Ashton – December 3, 2009
Thirty years ago, Volcker's "Saturday Night Special" announcement kicked off a monetarist experiment that permitted the Fed's direct assault on inflation. Maybe it is time to try it again. Read more »
You Don't Say?
Michael Ashton – November 25, 2009
The Fed suspects that if rates are kept very low for a long time, it is possible that such policy could lead to excessive risk-taking in financial markets. Really. Read more »
Today's Data Is Not What The Fed Wants To See
Michael Ashton – November 18, 2009
A small upside surprise in CPI could have been a bigger one without the housing-bubble unwind; this, combined with plummeting Housing Starts, is a bad set of data for the Fed. Read more »
Forecasting Core CPI
Michael Ashton – November 13, 2009
We offer a forecast for year-ahead core inflation, and explain the risks to that forecast. Read more »